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Throughout history, it was widely believed that central banks could not move short-term interest rates below zero. After all, why would anyone pay to deposit money in a bank or pay to lend someone money, when they could just keep their cash at home for free? Cash always has a zero interest rate.
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Setting interest rates to below zero is often viewed as an unconventional policy, but it can actually be seen as a continuation of the perfectly normal monetary policy practice of moving the short-term interest rate in response to fluctuations in the economy. There is a limit to how low interest rates can go, but it turns out that this limit is not zero and we have not reached it yet.
Negative interest rates have become part of the central bank’s toolkit for responding to an economic downturn when nominal interest rates are already very low. They have worked largely as interest rate policy does in positive territory. This is a success and shows that central banks have a bit more firepower than they thought they had.
By comparison, the US central bank cut the interest rate from about 6% down to about 1% during the relatively mild US recession in 2001, and again by 5% in response to the global financial crisis in 2008. It would, in fact, have cut a lot more in 2008 and 2009 if the interest rate had not already reached zero, which was thought to be the lower bound.
And yet – some feel that their savings are taxed by negative nominal interest rates in Switzerland, while few feel “taxed” by the negative real interest rates in the US. The reason that negative nominal rates seem so controversial is because of so-called money illusion. The public generally doesn’t distinguish between nominal and real interest rates, and tends to perceive only negative nominal interest rates as relevant for the value of their savings.
In countries where the inflation rate is higher than nominal interest rates, real interest rates are negative, and your savings fall in value according to what you can buy for them. In countries where inflation is lower than the nominal interest rate, on the other hand, the real value of your savings increases.
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Mostly, when banks cut their interest rates to below zero, they don’t charge for the smaller deposits of households; most of us don’t pay a negative nominal interest rate on our demand deposits. The fact that our banks don’t pass on negative interest to retail deposits could be what is preventing a run to cash. What we don’t know is how retail depositors would react to a negative deposit rate, or how negative the rate would have to be before a large reaction occurred.
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It was widely believed that if interest rates did dip below zero, even if by a very small amount, everyone with savings would run to the bank to change them for ready money. The zero interest rate on cash was seen as the lowest point an interest rate could dip to, the point at which central banks would be out of ammunition.
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In Switzerland, on the other hand, inflation is currently negative, but so are nominal interest rates, and the two largely cancel each other out for shorter horizons. In Switzerland, your savings (invested in bonds with a negative nominal interest rate, for example) are losing less value in terms of the goods you can buy for them over time than in the US.
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Since the global financial crisis, keeping an eye on market prices, signs of exuberance and excessive financial risk-taking has become part and parcel of conducting monetary policy in response to negative shocks to the economy. Central banks can respond to signs of financial instability in different ways, depending on their mandates and toolkit. Some central banks may be able to regulate risk-taking directly (so-called macroprudential measures), while others don’t have that authority. Others question whether such policies are enough, and call for central banks to raise interest rates in the face of stability risks. But increasing interest rates before the economy has returned to growth obviously risks delaying the return to growth.
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Imagine a pension fund is holding a deposit with a commercial bank. If the interest rate drops, the fund might seek to buy financial assets with a higher return, such as bonds (which are like long-term loans). This increases demand for, and therefore the price of, these assets, which is how the rate cut is transmitted to the broader financial market. To compete with cheaper capital-market financing, banks might also reduce the interest rates they charge on loans.
Business models are changing, however, and banks in countries with negative interest rates so far have not, on average, seen a fall in their profits as a result of them. While that could change[KS2], it’s still a risky strategy to raise nominal interest rates today to protect the profits of financial institutions, because it would tend to lead to lower demand and lower growth, which in turn would prolong the period of low real interest rates. It could put even more strain on financial institutions.
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